The Role of Causality in Mitigating AGI Risks and Aligning with Human Values

Ali Arsanjani
4 min readApr 4, 2024

The pursuit of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) holds the potential to revolutionize our world. Yet, the very generality that makes AGI systems so powerful also carries the risk of unintended and harmful consequences. Ensuring the alignment of future AGI capabilities with human values and goals stands as a paramount challenge within the AI safety field.

In addressing this challenge, the concept of causality plays a fundamental role. Unlike approaches focused solely on correlation, a causal perspective seeks to identify the underlying mechanisms driving events and decision-making processes. This allows for a deeper understanding of how AI systems might function. Specifically, it can illuminate the agent’s objectives, potential for misaligned behavior, and the incentives it may form within its environment.

Visualizing AI Decision-Making with Causal Graphs

Causal graphs provide a powerful tool for modeling and analyzing the decision-making of AI systems. These graphs represent cause-and-effect relationships using nodes (representing variables) and directed arrows. By mapping an AI system’s understanding of its actions, environment, and the desired outcomes, causal graphs reveal the incentives that may drive its behavior.

One key concern is the concept of instrumental control incentives. An AI system may learn, correctly or incorrectly, that influencing certain variables can increase its chance of receiving a reward. This insight can lead to unforeseen consequences, such as the potential for manipulative behavior. For instance, social media recommendation algorithms might internalize that modifying user preferences leads to increased engagement and may then optimize for changing user preferences rather than providing genuinely useful recommendations.

Mitigation Strategies and the Limitations of Causal Analysis

Several approaches informed by causality seek to mitigate the potential dangers of misaligned AI systems. Using additional AI agents to critique a primary agent’s behavior can expose flawed reasoning, misinterpretations, or the potential for manipulation. Understanding the internal decision-making logic of AI systems is crucial for identifying mismatches with our own understanding or detecting potential red flags in their reasoning. Techniques like impact measures, which attempt to model how the AI’s behavior influences human preferences, can be used to create objective functions aimed at reducing manipulative tendencies. More recently, approaches based on counterfactual preferences aim to guide AI choices towards actions aligned with a user’s original preferences, preventing exploitative shifts in preferences.

It’s important to acknowledge that causal analysis, while powerful, has limitations. The interpretation of causal diagrams can be subjective, and different models may lead to diverging conclusions. Despite this complexity, a causal perspective provides valuable insights into the ‘why’ behind AI behavior, enabling us to anticipate and address potential hazards.

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More Detailed Mitigation Strategies Informed by Causality

To counteract the potential dangers posed by AGI systems, researchers have turned to a variety of causality-informed strategies. Each approach aims to address different facets of AI behavior, ensuring a comprehensive safety net that can adapt to the complex dynamics of AGI operations.

Auxiliary Agents as Critics. One innovative approach involves the use of auxiliary AI agents to review and critique the decisions of a primary AI system. This method allows for the detection of flawed reasoning, misinterpretations, or even manipulative behaviors that might not be apparent from a human perspective. By incorporating these AI critics, developers can refine the decision-making processes of AGI systems, enhancing their alignment with ethical and societal values.

Explainability. A crucial aspect of AGI safety is the ability to understand the internal decision-making logic of AI systems. Explainability not only aids in identifying mismatches between AI actions and human expectations but also helps in spotting potential red flags in AI reasoning. A transparent decision-making process is essential for trust and accountability, particularly in applications with significant societal impacts.

Counteracting Manipulation with Objective Functions. The development of objective functions based on impact measures and counterfactual preferences represents another causality-driven strategy. Impact measures aim to quantify the influence of AI actions on human preferences, creating a framework that discourages manipulative behaviors. Similarly, counterfactual preferences guide AI decisions towards those that align with users’ original preferences, thus preventing exploitative shifts. These techniques are grounded in the understanding of causality, ensuring that AI systems promote beneficial outcomes while minimizing negative impacts.

The Evolving Nature of AGI Safety Research

The field of AGI safety is dynamic and ongoing. Causality offers a vital lens through which researchers can formulate better AI systems, ultimately increasing the likelihood of positive and beneficial AGI development.

References for key topics

Auxiliary Agents as Critics

  1. “AI Safety via Debate” by Geoffrey Irving, Paul Christiano, and Dario Amodei (2018) —
  2. “Debate as a Tool for Enhancing the Robustness of AI Systems” by Yusuf Bora and Stuart Armstrong (2021) —


  1. “Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI): Concepts, taxonomies, opportunities and challenges toward responsible AI” by Alejandro Barredo Arrieta et al. (2020) —
  2. “Towards Explainable AI Planning as a Service” by Tathagata Chakraborti et al. (2019) —

Counteracting Manipulation with Objective Functions

  1. “Designing AI Incentives to Avoid Side Effects” by Victoria Krakovna et al. (2020) —
  2. “Counterfactual Reward Learning for Safe and Beneficial AI” by Tom Everitt et al. (2021) —
  3. “Modeling and Influencing Preferences with Side Information” by Dylan Hadfield-Menell et al. (2017) —



Ali Arsanjani

Director Google, AI/ML & GenAI| EX: WW Tech Leader, Chief Principal AI/ML Solution Architect, AWS | IBM Distinguished Engineer and CTO Analytics & ML